Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that split the nation and triggered turmoil, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The team have examined the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in academia but very few elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer advocates unity or the current situation. Both composes two pieces that aim for neutrality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and social statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over national emblems, levies, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," commented the writer. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens say they favour unity but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government must work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified perspectives, he stated. "One side will win here and the other side will in the end be defeated but all factions has has something to learn from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster must join the discussion, said O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
